Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses
6/10/2020
A baseline bus fleet and battery electric bus investment scenario was developed based on the average or common parameters of existing battery electric bus (BEB) fleets. A discounted cashflow analysis was done that found the baseline fleet to have a net present value of $785,000 and simple payback of 3.3 years. The 33 main parameters were then swung ±50% to determine their relative influence on NPV and were ranked accordingly. Then parameter volatility was estimated by dividing the range of observed values by the baseline value. The parameters that are most influential and volatile were highlighted as the ones fleet managers should focus on when determining if BEBs are a good investment option for them. These top parameters are 1) BEB purchase price, 2) purchase price of foregone diesel bus, 3) grant amount, 4) maintenance costs of foregone diesel bus, 5) annual vehicle miles traveled.
Authors: Johnson, C.; Nobler, E.; Eudy, L.; Jeffers, M.
The Automated Mobility District Implementation Catalog – Insights from Ten Early-Stage Deployments
6/1/2020
Major disruptive technologies are set to redefine the way in which people view travel, particularly in dense urban areas. Already, ride-hailing services have redefined mobility expectations of a new generation of urban dwellers in some places around the country. Over the next few decades, the proliferation of automated vehicles1 (AVs), will be enhanced by the next generation of shared mobility. This combination of AV operations with on-demand service will provide convenience of mobility similar to that being exhibited in today’s transportation networking companies (TNCs). Shared, automated, public mobility resulting from the cross- hybridization of AVs with on-demand mobility service will bring economic and system efficiencies. Economic efficiencies may be realized by less vehicle ownership and more vehicle “usership.” Many companies are already exploring avenues for shared automated mobility through fleet operations as the wave of the future.
Authors: Young, S.; Lott J. S.
Assessment of Light-Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicles in the United States, 2010-2019
6/1/2020
This report examines properties of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) sold in the United States from 2010 to 2019, exploring vehicle sales, miles driven, electricity consumption, petroleum reduction, vehicle manufacturing, and battery production, among other factors. Over 1.4 million PEVs have been sold, driving over 37 billion miles on electricity since 2010, thereby reducing national gasoline consumption by 0.34% in 2019 and 1.4 billion gallons cumulatively through 2019. In 2019, PEVs used 4.1 terawatt-hours of electricity to drive 12.7 billion miles, offsetting 470 million gallons of gasoline. Since 2010, 69% of all PEVs have been assembled in the United States, and over 60 gigawatt-hours of lithium-ion batteries have been installed in vehicles to date.
Authors: Gohlke, D.; Zhou, Y.
West Coast Clean Transit Corridor Initiative
6/1/2020
Electric utility companies in the West Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington have conducted the West Coast Clean Transit Corridor Initiative (WCCTCI) study to assess the charging infrastructure medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks will need as they travel along the approximately 1,300-mile-long Interstate 5 (I-5) corridor and interconnecting highways. This report documents the study findings, and provides background information on regulations, policies, and programs pertaining to vehicle electrification efforts, trends in the electric truck market, and truck traffic volumes and trucking facilities along I-5. The lessons learned from the WCCTCI can be applied to other regions and routes across the rest of the nation.
Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report, April 2020
5/27/2020
The Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report for April 2020 is a quarterly report on the prices of alternative fuels in the U.S. and their relation to gasoline and diesel prices. This issue describes prices that were gathered from Clean Cities coordinators and stakeholders between April 1, 2020 and April 15, 2020, and then averaged in order to determine regional price trends by fuel and variability in fuel price within regions and among regions. The prices collected for this report represent retail, at-the-pump sales prices for each fuel, including Federal and state motor fuel taxes.
Table 2 reports that the nationwide average price (all amounts are per gallon) for regular gasoline has decreased 68 cents from $2.59 to $1.91; diesel decreased 44 cents from $3.05 to $2.61; CNG increased 1 cent from $2.18 to $2.19; ethanol (E85) decreased 53 cents from $2.28 to $1.75; propane decreased 6 cents from $2.79 to $2.73; and biodiesel (B20) decreased 53 cents from $2.89 to $2.36.
According to Table 3, CNG is $0.28 more than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis, while E85 is $0.37 more than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis.
Authors: Bourbon, E.
Jamaican Domestic Ethanol Fuel Feasibility and Benefits Analysis
5/21/2020
The Government of Jamaica asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to determine if the use of domestically produced ethanol motor fuel could help them achieve their goals to develop its economy and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first step was to determine how much ethanol could be used by Jamaican vehicles in blends of 10% (E10- current blend level), 15% (E15), or 25% (E25). All blend levels are feasible and are being used or pursued in multiple countries. Building on projections made by the Johnson et al. (2019) business as usual scenario, the quantity of ethanol to be used in 2030 ranges from 84 million liters in E10 to 209 million liters in E25. All blend levels are assumed to achieve the same volumetric fuel economy because of verified efficiency improvements enabled by increased octane levels.The next step of the analysis was a resource assessment, which found sugarcane to be the most viable source of domestic ethanol for the 2030 timeframe. A theoretical maximum was set at 288 million L/year of sugarcane ethanol under a scenario where the amount of land devoted to sugarcane is returned to its 1960s levels of 60,000 ha and productivity is maximized at 4,800L/ha/yr. Numerous scenarios were run that achieved the needed quantities of ethanol by increasing the hectarage of sugarcane production or the yield from current levels. This theoretical maximum allows for all goal quantities of ethanol to be achieved. Scenarios were laid out whereby required ethanol is produced by hectares of land and yield that Jamaica has achieved in previous years and domestic sugar needs are still met. A GHG impact assessment was then performed for utilizing domestic cane ethanol at the prescribed blend levels. To do this, the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model was used to perform a lifecycle assessment.
Authors: Johnson, C.; Milbrandt, A.; Zhang, Y.; Hardison, R.; Sharpe, A.
Grid Impact Analysis of Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
5/7/2020
This paper presents a grid impact analysis of heavy-duty electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. Authors assumed heavy-duty EVs will have battery capacities high enough to provide a range of 250 to 500 miles on a single charge. Heavy-duty EVs will require extremely fast charging rates to reduce charging time and will induce very high charging loads (at the multiple-megawatt scale) if several vehicles charge at the same time. This project develops a systematic procedure to analyze the potential impact of the placement of charging stations on the grid. Additionally, it develops initial mitigation solutions based on insights from this analysis.
Authors: Zhu, X.; Mather, B.; Mishra, P.
Notes: This report is copyrighted by IEEE and can be accessed through IEEE.
Foundations of an Electric Mobility Strategy for the City of Mexicali
5/4/2020
The Foundations of an Electric Mobility Strategy for the city of Mexicali aligns with numerous energy, environmental, and transport plans and will help Mexicali meet multiple related goals. Mexicali’s energy mix, with 28% renewables, already enables plugin electric vehicles (PEVs) to reduce the mass of greenhouse gases (GHGs) per km driven 2/3 below that of their conventional counterparts. This GHG benefit will increase should Mexicali take steps to further increase their share of renewables in their electricity supply. Beyond increasing renewables, Mexicali could possibly deploy PEVs so that electric load is added in the right location (depending on further analysis of substations and feeders) and at the right time (between 21:00 and 11:00) in order to minimize grid upgrade costs. There are a handful of charge timing control mechanisms –at various stages of development– that Mexicali could implement. Transport electrification can facilitate mass transit by powering buses, trains, and small vehicles that get people from their homes or work to the transit stations and vice versa. Mexicali could utilize fleets as early PEV adopters in order to gain acceptance and add electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). Recommended prioritization of different types of fleets are suggested in this report: transit buses, school buses, airport ground support equipment (GSE), refuse trucks, taxis, shuttle buses, campus vehicles, delivery trucks, utility trucks, and finally semitrailers. There are a handful of policy options that Mexicali could use to incentivize fleets to purchase PEVs, including mandates, economic incentives, energy performance contracts, waivers to access restrictions, electricity discounts, and EVSE requirements in building codes. Mexicali’s taxi fleet was an early adopter of PEVs and had experienced some challenges—mostly related to the insufficient range of the taxis due to hot weather.
Authors: Johnson, C.; Nanayakkara, S.; Cappellucci, J.; Moniot, M.
EV Charging Interoperability Recommendations for State Policymakers
5/1/2020
In the context of the electric vehicle charging ecosystem, the term “interoperability” broadly refers to the compatibility of key system components that allow vehicles, charging stations, charging networks, and the grid to exchange information, communicate effectively and work together as part of a seamless charging system. Interoperability is essential to the optimal functioning of the charging network. This document offers recommendations for state policy makers to promote widespread interoperability through state electric vehicle supply equipment grant and procurement contracts or the development of market-wide requirements for public chargers.
Public Electric Vehicle Charging Business Models for Retail Site Hosts
4/29/2020
As the passenger plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market grows in the United States, public PEV charging stations will become increasingly important to serve the charging needs of millions of drivers. For retailers, PEV charging stations offer an opportunity to produce new revenue streams or expand on existing ones while also advancing broader efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. This brief provides an overview of PEV market growth and the role of public charging options, along with the potential benefits to retailers of hosting PEV charging infrastructure.
Authors: Satterfield, C.; Nigro, N.
Two Trillion Gallons: Fuel Savings from Fuel Economy Improvements to US Light-Duty Vehicles, 1975-2018
4/25/2020
The article includes the following highlights. Fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles in the US almost doubled from 1975 to 2018. MPG gains on regulatory tests yielded proportional on-road improvements. This saved 2 trillion gallons of gasoline and 17 billion tonnes of CO2. Fuel economy and ghg standards drove about 4/5 of the fuel savings. Indirect impacts, e.g. rebound effect, were relatively small.
Authors: Greene, D. L.; Sims, C. B.; Muratori, M.
Development and Demonstration of a Class 6 Range-Extended Electric Vehicle for Commercial Pickup and Delivery Operation
4/14/2020
Range-extended hybrids are an attractive option for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle fleets because they offer the efficiency of an electrified powertrain with the driving range of a conventional diesel powertrain. The vehicle essentially operates as if it was purely electric for most trips, while ensuring that all commercial routes can be completed in any weather conditions or geographic terrain. Fuel use and point-source emissions can be significantly reduced, and in some cases eliminated, as many shorter routes can be fully electrified with this architecture.
Authors: Jeffers, M.A.; Miller, E.; Kelly, K.; Kresse, J.; Li, K.; Dalton, J.; Kader, M.; Frazier, C.
Notes: This report is copyrighted and can be accessed through SAE International in United States website.
Right-of-Way Charging: How Cities Can Lead the Way
4/1/2020
As transportation electrification accelerates, right-of-way charging, or the installation of electric vehicle chargers in the areas between neighboring properties, will be critical for meeting charging demand. This report outlines the case for right-of-way charging and the strategic approach that cities can take to implement right-of-way charging in their communities, outlining strategic approaches, barriers and challenges for implementation, best practices for designing right-of-way charging programs, and case studies of municipal right-of-way charging projects.