Future U.S. Highway Energy Use: A Fifty Year Perspective
5/3/2001
The U.S. Transportation system as a whole and the highway mode in particular will be much different in the year 2050 compared to today. The type and number of vehicles in use and the fuels employed to power them are unknown. Yet planning for the future requires acting on the information at hand: assessing the implications of the current path and the potential benefit of alternative futures. This paper puts transportation energy issues into a long-run perspective so that informed planning can begin early enough to make a decisive difference. This paper examines the global oil supply and demand over the next 50 years to show that a transition away from conventional oil will begin. The analysis reviews the energy, economic, and environmental implications of the alternatives that are available to meet some of the anticipated gap between world conventional oil production and the liquid fuels required to support a growing world economy. This paper then describes several U.S. Transportation technology strategies with a range of efficiency improvements and fuel substitutions, and calculates their first order effects on energy use, petroleum consumption, and carbon emissions over a 50-year time horizon.
Authors: Birky, A.; Greene, D.; Gross, T.; Hamilton, D.; Heitner, K.; Johnson, L.; Maples, J.; Moore, J.; Patterson, P.; Plotkin, S.; Stodolsky, F.
Notes: This report is available on the Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT) Web site at http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts/publications/hwyfuture.pdf