Jamaican Domestic Ethanol Fuel Feasibility and Benefits Analysis
5/21/2020
The Government of Jamaica asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to determine if the use of domestically produced ethanol motor fuel could help them achieve their goals to develop its economy and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first step was to determine how much ethanol could be used by Jamaican vehicles in blends of 10% (E10- current blend level), 15% (E15), or 25% (E25). All blend levels are feasible and are being used or pursued in multiple countries. Building on projections made by the Johnson et al. (2019) business as usual scenario, the quantity of ethanol to be used in 2030 ranges from 84 million liters in E10 to 209 million liters in E25. All blend levels are assumed to achieve the same volumetric fuel economy because of verified efficiency improvements enabled by increased octane levels.The next step of the analysis was a resource assessment, which found sugarcane to be the most viable source of domestic ethanol for the 2030 timeframe. A theoretical maximum was set at 288 million L/year of sugarcane ethanol under a scenario where the amount of land devoted to sugarcane is returned to its 1960s levels of 60,000 ha and productivity is maximized at 4,800L/ha/yr. Numerous scenarios were run that achieved the needed quantities of ethanol by increasing the hectarage of sugarcane production or the yield from current levels. This theoretical maximum allows for all goal quantities of ethanol to be achieved. Scenarios were laid out whereby required ethanol is produced by hectares of land and yield that Jamaica has achieved in previous years and domestic sugar needs are still met. A GHG impact assessment was then performed for utilizing domestic cane ethanol at the prescribed blend levels. To do this, the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model was used to perform a lifecycle assessment.
Authors: Johnson, C.; Milbrandt, A.; Zhang, Y.; Hardison, R.; Sharpe, A.