Publications

Ready Set Go! 2023 Ethanol Outlook

1/1/2023

While the U.S. economy experienced turbulence in 2022, the ethanol industry’s financial performance was strong and biorefineries continued to stimulate crucial economic activity in communities across the country. Consumer price inflation was the highest in decades, spurred in part by record gasoline prices that put a damper on fuel demand. However, the ethanol content of gasoline (i.e., the ethanol “blend rate”) continued to increase due to its cost-competitiveness and the expanded availability of E15 and flex fuels. And, as international markets also faced high fuel prices and tight supplies, ethanol exports rose sharply. As a result, ethanol production increased to more than 15.4 billion gallons and has now almost rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. This report looks at the state of the ethanol industry in 2022 and focus areas for 2023.

Assessment of Light-Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the United States, 2010 – 2021

11/1/2022

This report examines properties of electric vehicles (EVs) sold in the United States from 2010 to 2021, evaluating range, energy efficiency, costs, and performance. Given the vehicle characteristics, this report estimates miles driven, electricity consumption, petroleum reduction, and greenhouse gas emissions attributable to EVs. It also explores vehicle manufacturing and battery production, considering supply chains from battery cells to assembly.

Authors: Gohlke, D.; Zhou, Y.; Wu, X.; Courtney, C.

Assessment of Light-Duty EV Costs and Consumer Benefits in the United States in the 2022–2035 Time Frame

10/3/2022

This paper analyzes bottom-up vehicle component-level costs to assess average battery electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid vehicle, and conventional vehicle prices across major U.S. light-duty vehicle classes through 2035. These cost estimates are used to evaluate broader consumer benefits, as well as to discuss the implications for vehicle emission regulations in the United States.

Authors: Slowik, P.; Isenstadt, A.; Pierce, L.; Searle, S.

Notes:

This copyrighted publication can be accessed on the International Council on Clean Transportation's website.

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane: Final Report

10/1/2022

The Propane Education and Research Council (PERC) has engaged with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop information that is critical to understanding the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) and the value proposition for recovery of RP from existing and planned HEFA biorefineries. In summary the following outcomes are identified from this study: (1) production of incremental RP by increasing the severity of the hydroisomerization step is insignificant to the overall propane yield from a HEFA biorefinery, however production of renewable butane (or LPG2) is quite significant thus suggesting alternate strategies for valorizing these fractions; (2) the value proposition for recovering RP and renewable LPG is quite strong, with capital recovery payback periods of 14 months for a small biorefinery producing 3.5 million gallons per year RP to as short as 2 months for a large biorefinery producing 87 million gallons per year RP. Paybacks for renewable LPG are as much as 50% shorter; and (3) current and projected expansions of renewable diesel will greatly expand the potential availability of RP as a by-product. Several promising new pathways are under development but will not significantly increase production of RP for the next decade.

Authors: Robert M. Baldwin, Mark R. Nimlos, and Yimin Zhang

Promising Practices for Meaningful Public Involvement in Transportation Decision-Making

10/1/2022

This report underscores the importance of public engagement when designing transportation projects and provides information about how transportation professionals can incorporate community engagement in transportation projects. The report discusses current gaps in public engagement, how communities can build public involvement capacity, how projects can measure the success of public engagement strategies, and techniques for meaningful community involvement.

Cracking the Code to EV Readiness in New Buildings

9/1/2022

While incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) and charging infrastructure have contributed to growth in EV adoption, building codes are effective tools to advance “EV-readiness” by requiring new construction to support convenient EV charging. This paper presents considerations, guidance, and examples for municipalities and other jurisdictions establishing policies for EV readiness in new buildings. It provides an introduction to EV readiness in building codes and discusses best practices in infrastructure development such as intelligent load sharing. It presents an overview of why and how EV readiness was incorporated into the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design rating system. Further, it includes case studies of municipal codes and a utility program that partners with builders to incentivize EV readiness in new homes. Finally, it summarizes key opportunities for advancing transportation electrification through EV-ready building codes.

Authors: Banwell, P.; Steiner, K.; Miller, K.; Kelly, E.; Kay, S.; Noblet, S.

2022 Annual Evaluation of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Deployment and Hydrogen Fuel Station Network Development

9/1/2022

California's Assembly Bill 8 requires the California Air Resources Board (ARB) to assess the size of the current and future fuel cell electric vehicle fleet annually, based on vehicle registrations with the Department of Motor Vehicles, auto manufacturer responses to ARB surveys of projected future sales, and current and future hydrogen fuel station locations and capacity. This information informs the state’s decisions for future funding of hydrogen fuel stations, including the number and location of stations as well as minimum technical requirements for those stations.

Electric Vehicle Charger Deployment Optimization

8/1/2022

As consumers begin to purchase electric vehicles (EVs) in greater volumes, the need for charging stations will increase. A one-size-fits-all deployment strategy of EV charging stations will not satisfy all needs or economic considerations. This study investigates how many charging stations and outlets may be required at various stages of the EV market development in different regions of the United States to satisfy actual demand and to instill within end users the confidence that availability will be sufficient. In addition, this study aims to better understand what types of chargers will be required at different locations to optimize deployment while reducing overall infrastructure costs and accelerating the business case for charger installation.

Diesel Emissions Reduction Act Fifth Report to Congress: Highlights of the Diesel Emissions Reduction Program

8/1/2022

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Transportation and Air Quality administers the Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA) program. EPA awarded the first DERA grants in 2008, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act grants in 2009, and grants from funds appropriated in Fiscal Years (FY) 2009 through 2018. This Fifth Report to Congress summarizes final results from FY 2008-2018.

Deploying Charging Infrastructure for Electric Transit Buses

6/1/2022

This study is aimed at assisting transit agencies as they begin to plan for significant electrification of their bus fleets. It focuses on battery electric technologies and is limited in scope to charging technologies, designs, and choices. It incorporates learnings from 28 industry interviews completed between January and April 2022 by Atlas Public Policy staff. These interviews sought to understand latest developments, challenges, solutions, and lessons learned in battery electric bus charging, and to compile specific examples, anecdotes and on-the-ground experiences from those at the forefront of deployment.

Authors: Lepre, N.; Burget, S.; McKenzie, L.

State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets: Fleet Compliance Annual Report - Model Year 2020, Fiscal Year 2021

5/19/2022

This annual report of the Alternative Fuel Transportation Program, which ensures compliance with DOE regulations covering state government and alternative fuel provider fleets pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended, provides fleet compliance results for manufacturing year 2020/fiscal year 2021.

2021 Zero Emission Vehicle Market Study: Volume 2: Intra-California Regions Defined by Air Districts

4/14/2022

California set a goal to transition new light-duty vehicle sales to 100% zero emissions vehicles (ZEVs) by 2035. To assist California and the other ZEV states to monitor and manage the success of policies promoting ZEVs and ZEV fueling infrastructure deployment, this research assesses car-owning households’ responses to these new technology vehicles and new fueling behaviors. This report assesses the readiness of household consumers in California to support state goals, i.e., as goals become more ambitious and requirements on manufacturers increase, are more car-owning households poised to become ZEV buyers? The analysis explores differences within California, based on boundaries of air quality districts. This study question is addressed via comparison of two large sample surveys of car-owning households. These surveys were completed in first calendar quarters of 2019 and 2021. Both questionnaires measure consumer awareness, knowledge, assessments, and consideration of ZEVs. Note:

This copyrighted publication can be accessed on the eScholarship website.

Authors: Kurani, K.

How to Support EV Adoption: Tradeoffs Between Charging Infrastructure Investments and Vehicle Subsidies in California

4/1/2022

Promoting electric vehicle (EV) adoption is a priority for governments worldwide due to EVs’ ability to address pressing climate change and air quality challenges. Two policy mechanisms, public charging infrastructure investments and vehicle subsidies, are widely used to support EV adoption. This report estimates tradeoffs between lowered vehicle purchase price (subsidies) or expanded public charging infrastructure and their impacts on consumer demand for EVs. These two policies are evaluated using two criteria: promoting additional EV sales and reducing CO2 emissions.

Authors: Ledna, C; Muratori, M; Brooker, A; Wood, E; Greene, D

Electric Trucks Have Arrived: The Use Case for Terminal Tractors

3/1/2022

This report documents the three terminal tractors that participated in the Run on Less - Electric demonstration by the North American Council for Freight Efficiency, which was conducted in September of 2021. It provides data from the demonstration, research and interviews with fleets, vehicle manufacturers, and other industry experts about this market segment. The report shares key findings for electrifying terminal tractors.

Notes:

This copyrighted publication can be accessed on the North American Council for Freight Efficiency website.

Considerations for Department of Defense Implementation of Zero-Emission Vehicles and Charging Infrastructure

3/1/2022

In December 2021, the president issued Executive Order (EO) 14057 on Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability. The EO requires the Department of Defense to transition its non-tactical vehicles to a 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) fleet, including 100% of light-duty acquisitions by 2027 and 100% of medium- and heavy-duty acquisitions by 2035. This document provides considerations to comply with these requirements and transition to a ZEV fleet efficiently and quickly. It covers planning for ZEVs and electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment, suggested roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders in designing EV charging equipment, and execution issues including acquisition, installation, and ongoing fleet management.

Authors: Hodge, C.; Bennett, J.; Bentley, J.; Boyce, L.