Publications

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Non-Cost Barriers to Consumer Adoption of New Light-Duty Vehicle Technologies

3/1/2013

Consumer preferences are key to the adoption of new vehicle technologies. Barriers to consumer adoption include price and other obstacles, such as limited driving range and charging infrastructure; unfamiliarity with the technology and uncertainty about direct benefits; limited makes and models with the technology; reputation or perception of the technology; standardization issues; and regulations. For each of these non-cost barriers, this report estimates an effective cost and summarizes underlying influences on consumer preferences, approximate magnitude and relative severity, and assesses potential actions, based on a comprehensive literature review. While the report concludes that non-cost barriers are significant, effective cost and potential market share are very uncertain. Policies and programs including opportunities for drivers to test drive advanced vehicles, general public outreach and information programs, incentives for providing charging and fueling infrastructure, and development of technology standards were examined for their ability to address barriers, but little quantitative data exists on the effectiveness of these measures. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Authors: Stephens, T.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

3/1/2013

Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Authors: Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.; McKenzie, E.; Tao, W.; Vimmerstedt, L.

Transportation Energy Futures Study Points to Deep Cuts in Petroleum and Emissions; Analysis Snapshot

3/1/2013

The U.S. transportation sector has the technical potential to eliminate reliance on oil and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by more than 80 percent by 2050. This sector is currently responsible for 71 percent of the nation's total petroleum use and 33 percent of our total carbon emissions. The EERE Transportation Energy Futures study examines underexplored opportunities to combine strategies to increase the efficiency of transportation modes, manage the demand for transportation, and shift the fuel mix to more sustainable sources necessary to reach these significant outcomes.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Vehicle Technology Deployment Pathways: An Examination of Timing and Investment Constraints

3/1/2013

Scenarios of new vehicle technology deployment serve various purposes; some will seek to establish plausibility. This report proposes two reality checks for scenarios: (1) implications of manufacturing constraints on timing of vehicle deployment and (2) investment decisions required to bring new vehicle technologies to market. An estimated timeline of 12 to more than 22 years from initial market introduction to saturation is supported by historical examples and based on the product development process. Researchers also consider the series of investment decisions to develop and build the vehicles and their associated fueling infrastructure. A proposed decision tree analysis structure could be used to systematically examine investors' decisions and the potential outcomes, including consideration of cash flow and return on investment. This method requires data or assumptions about capital cost, variable cost, revenue, timing, and probability of success/failure, and would result in a detailed consideration of the value proposition of large investments and long lead times. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Authors: Plotkin, S.; Stephens, T.; McManus, W.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

3/1/2013

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Authors: Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; Dunphy, R. T.; Vimmerstedt, L.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

3/1/2013

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Authors: Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

Leadership in Technology and Research: Supporting Alternative Energy in an Academic Setting

3/1/2013

With petroleum prices maintaining historic heights and a growing emphasis for more fuel/energy efficient vehicles, the transportation industry is in need of new ideas and innovation. On North Carolina State University's Centennial Campus, where academia and research blend to foster future technology advances and change, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are dynamically launching a new research platform as part of a living laboratory.

Which is Greener: Idle, or Stop and Restart? Comparing Fuel Use and Emissions for Short Passenger-Car Stops

2/11/2013

The argument against parking and going into a business, rather than using a drive-through window, has been that the emissions and fuel use associated with restarting your car are greater than those incurred by idling for that time. Argonne National Laboratory undertook a series of measurements to determine whether this was true, by comparing actual idling fuel use and emissions with those for restarting. This work seeks to answer the question: Considering both fuel use and emissions, how long can you idle in a queue before impacts from idling are greater than they are for restarting? Fuel use and carbon dioxide emissions are always greater for idling over 10 seconds; the crossover times are found to vary by pollutant.

Authors: Gaines, L., Rask, E., Keller, G.

Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report, January, 2013

2/1/2013

The Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report for January 2013 is a quarterly report on the prices of alternative fuels in the U.S. and their relation to gasoline and diesel prices. This issue describes prices that were gathered from Clean Cities coordinators and stakeholders between January 10, 2013 and January 25, 2013, and then averaged in order to determine regional price trends by fuel and variability in fuel price within regions and among regions. The prices collected for this report represent retail, at-the-pump sales prices for each fuel, including Federal and state motor fuel taxes.

Table 1 reports that the nationwide average price (all amounts are per gallon) for regular gasoline has decreased 53 cents from $3.82 to $3.29; diesel has decreased 17 cents from $4.13 to $3.96; CNG price has decreased 2 cents from $2.12 to $2.10; ethanol (E85) has decreased 30 cents from $3.47 to $3.17; propane has increased 12 cents from $2.56 to $2.68; and biodiesel (B20) has decreased 13 cents from $4.18 to $4.05.

According to Table 2, CNG is about $1.19 less than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis, while E85 is about $1.19 more than gasoline on an energy-equivalent basis.

Authors: Babcock, S.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

2/1/2013

Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Authors: Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.

Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels

1/1/2013

For a century, almost all light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have been powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) operating on petroleum fuels. Energy security concerns over petroleum imports and the effect of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions on global climate are driving interest in alternatives. This report assesses the potential for reducing petroleum consumption and GHG emissions by 80% across the U.S. LDV fleet by 2050, relative to 2005. It examines the current capability and estimated future performance and costs for each vehicle type and non-petroleum-based fuel technology as options that could significantly contribute to these goals. By analyzing scenarios that combine various fuel and vehicle pathways, the report also identifies barriers to implementation of these technologies and suggests policies to achieve the desired reductions. Several scenarios are promising, but strong, effective, and sustained but adaptive policies such as research and development (R&D), subsidies, energy taxes, or regulations will be necessary to overcome barriers such as cost and consumer choice.

Plug-in Electric Vehicle Action Tool

1/1/2013

The Plug-in Electric Vehicle Action Tool is the synthesis of 2 workshops as well as research conducted by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES). The PEV Action Tool helps state departments of transportation determine their goals for plug-in electric vehicle deployment and to chart out a path for reaching those goals. The PEV Action Tool is also a resource for learning about plug-in electric vehicles and best practices from other state agencies. Although state departments of transportation are the primary audience, many of the suggested actions and resources in the tool are applicable to other public entities such as local governments and other state agencies.

Authors: Zhu, C.; Nigro, N.

Overcoming Barriers to Electric-Vehicle Deployment: Interim Report (2013)

1/1/2013

This interim report by the Committee on Overcoming Barriers to Electric-Vehicle Deployment, was commissioned by the Department of Energy at the request of Congress to address market barriers to adoption of electric vehicles. The report focuses on near-term options, and specifically addresses infrastructure needs for electric vehicles; barriers to deploying the infrastructure; and possible roles of the federal government in overcoming the barriers. It also begins an initial discussion of the pros and cons of the possible roles.

Notes: This document is copyrighted by The National Academies Press. It can be located on their website

Renewable Natural Gas (RNG), The Solution to a Major Transportation Challenge - A Clean, Secure, Commercially Viable Replacement for Diesel Fuel Today

12/3/2012

This report details the benefits of converting organic wastes into clean vehicle fuel.

Clean Cities 2011 Annual Metrics Report

12/1/2012

This annual report details the petroleum savings and vehicle emissions reductions achieved by the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities program in 2011. The report also details other performance metrics, including the number of stakeholders in Clean Cities coalitions, outreach activities by coalitions and national laboratories, and alternative fuel vehicles deployed.

Authors: Johnson, C.