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Transportation Energy Futures Series: Vehicle Technology Deployment Pathways: An Examination of Timing and Investment Constraints
3/1/2013
Scenarios of new vehicle technology deployment serve various purposes; some will seek to establish plausibility. This report proposes two reality checks for scenarios: (1) implications of manufacturing constraints on timing of vehicle deployment and (2) investment decisions required to bring new vehicle technologies to market. An estimated timeline of 12 to more than 22 years from initial market introduction to saturation is supported by historical examples and based on the product development process. Researchers also consider the series of investment decisions to develop and build the vehicles and their associated fueling infrastructure. A proposed decision tree analysis structure could be used to systematically examine investors' decisions and the potential outcomes, including consideration of cash flow and return on investment. This method requires data or assumptions about capital cost, variable cost, revenue, timing, and probability of success/failure, and would result in a detailed consideration of the value proposition of large investments and long lead times. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
Authors: Plotkin, S.; Stephens, T.; McManus, W.
Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector
2/1/2013
Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
Authors: Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M.; Bertram, K. M.
Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
1/1/2013
For a century, almost all light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have been powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) operating on petroleum fuels. Energy security concerns over petroleum imports and the effect of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions on global climate are driving interest in alternatives. This report assesses the potential for reducing petroleum consumption and GHG emissions by 80% across the U.S. LDV fleet by 2050, relative to 2005. It examines the current capability and estimated future performance and costs for each vehicle type and non-petroleum-based fuel technology as options that could significantly contribute to these goals. By analyzing scenarios that combine various fuel and vehicle pathways, the report also identifies barriers to implementation of these technologies and suggests policies to achieve the desired reductions. Several scenarios are promising, but strong, effective, and sustained but adaptive policies such as research and development (R&D), subsidies, energy taxes, or regulations will be necessary to overcome barriers such as cost and consumer choice.
Clean Cities 2011 Annual Metrics Report
12/1/2012
This annual report details the petroleum savings and vehicle emissions reductions achieved by the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities program in 2011. The report also details other performance metrics, including the number of stakeholders in Clean Cities coalitions, outreach activities by coalitions and national laboratories, and alternative fuel vehicles deployed.
Authors: Johnson, C.
Clean Cities 2010 Annual Metrics Report
10/1/2012
Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) asks Clean Cities coordinators to submit an annual report of their activities and accomplishments for the previous calendar year. Data and information are submitted to an online database that is maintained as part of the Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center (AFDC) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Coordinators submit a range of data that characterizes the membership, funding, projects, and activities of their coalitions. They also submit data about sales of alternative fuels, deployment of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), idle reduction initiatives, fuel economy activities, and programs to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT). NREL analyzes the data and translates them into gasoline use reduction impacts, which are summarized in this report.
Authors: Johnson, C.
Plug-In Electric Vehicle Deployment in the Northeast; A Market Overview and Literature Review
9/1/2012
Electric vehicles have the potential to decrease our nation's dependence on oil and drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. In an effort to stimulate economic growth, decrease the United States' dependence on oil, and lessen the operating cost of personal transportation, the federal government issued a final rule in 2012 requiring new cars to average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. This goal is ambitious and will be difficult to accomplish without significant numbers of alternative fuel vehicles. Several alternative fuels are currently available, but electric vehicles (EVs) are emerging as the predominant alternative for passenger vehicles. While EVs are hitting the market and offer numerous advantages, such as zero tailpipe emissions, lower fuel costs, and the convenience of filling up at home, a number of barriers stand in the way of wide-scale EV deployment.
This literature review, prepared by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, provides an overview of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) deployment in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. The report assesses current electric vehicle and electric vehicle charging station technology, looks at the state of PEV markets, reviews the benefits of PEV deployment, and identifies the barriers and challenges to PEVs in gaining market acceptance. The literature review is intended to serve as a resource for consumers and policy makers who seek to better understand the nature of electric vehicle deployment in this region and related challenges.
Authors: Zhu, C.; Nigro, N.
EPA Announces Final Rulemaking for Clean Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Engine Conversions
8/1/2012
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is adopting changes to the regulations found in 40 CFR part 85 subpart F for clean alternative fuel conversion manufacturers. This action affects regulations applicable to manufacturers of light-duty vehicle and heavy-duty highway vehicle and engine clean alternative fuel conversion systems. The revisions will streamline the compliance process while maintaining environmentally protective controls.
Experiences with Compressed Natural Gas in Colorado Vehicle Fleets; Case Study Analysis
8/1/2012
This series of case studies is the product of in-person and telephone interviews with three Colorado fleet managers who use compressed natural gas (CNG) as a vehicle fuel and interviews with other CNG stakeholders. The fleets were selected using criteria that are intended to increase the usefulness of the overall product, including geographic diversity, length of CNG experience, diversity of vehicles, and ownership model. The case studies are based on a framework constructed with broad stakeholder input, designed to provide detailed information on fleet manager experiences with CNG vehicles and fueling infrastructure.
Featured fleets include the following: Republic Services (Republic), a private sector waste and environmental management firm with a CNG fleet based in the Denver metro area; Denver International Airport (DIA), an airport with more than 15 years of experience with CNG and proven success as a CNG hub; and City of Grand Junction, a Western Slope municipality with a public/private partnership to provide public CNG fueling.
Annual Energy Outlook 2012; with Projections to 2035
6/1/2012
The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2012 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies. But AEO2012 is not limited to the Reference case. It also includes 29 alternative cases (see Appendix E, Table E1), which explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. energy economy. Many of the implications of the alternative cases are discussed in the "Issues in focus" section of this report.
Key results highlighted in AEO2012 include continued modest growth in demand for energy over the next 25 years and increased domestic crude oil and natural gas production, largely driven by rising production from tight oil and shale resources. As a result, U.S. reliance on imported oil is reduced; domestic production of natural gas exceeds consumption, allowing for net exports; a growing share of U.S. electric power generation is met with natural gas and renewables; and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level from 2010 to 2035, even in the absence of new Federal policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Renewable Fuels and Lubricants (ReFUEL) Laboratory
3/1/2012
This fact sheet describes the Renewable Fuels and Lubricants (ReFUEL) Laboratory at the U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a state-of-the-art research and testing facility for advanced fuels and vehicles. Research and development aims to improve vehicle efficiency and overcome barriers to the increased use of renewable diesel and other nonpetroleum-based fuels, such as biodiesel and synthetic diesel derived from biomass. The ReFUEL Laboratory features a chassis dynamometer for vehicle performance and emissions research, two engine dynamometer test cells for advanced fuels research, and precise emissions analysis equipment. As a complement to these capabilities, detailed studies of fuel properties, with a focus on ignition quality, are performed at NREL's Fuel Chemistry Laboratory.
A Waste-to-Wheel Analysis of Anaerobic-Digestion-Based RNG Pathways with the GREET Model
9/1/2011
This study captures results from a life cycle analysis that was conducted to quantify the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact of converting methane from animal manure into renewable natural gas (RNG) and utilizing the gas in vehicles. Several manure-based RNG pathways were characterized in the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model, and their fuel-cycle energy use and GHG emissions were compared to petroleum-based pathways as well as to conventional fossil natural gas pathways.
Authors: Han, J.; Mintz, M.; Wang, M.
Clean Cities Niche Market Overview: Refuse Haulers
9/1/2011
Many niche market fleets, which operate specially designed vehicles that serve very specific functions, are ideal for the adoption of alternative fuels and advanced vehicle technologies. One prime example is the refuse hauler sector, whose 136,000 trucks average only 2.8 miles per gallon, using more than 1.2 billion gallons of fuel annually in the United States. This sector could substantially decrease its petroleum consumption through the use of alternative fuel or advanced technology vehicles. Before adopting these technologies, a refuse hauler fleet should consider both the technologies' benefits and the fleet's individual needs.
Authors: Shea, S.
Clean Cities Annual Metrics Report 2009 (Revised)
8/10/2011
Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) asks Clean Cities coordinators to submit an annual report of their activities and accomplishments for the previous calendar year. Data and information are submitted to an online database that is maintained as part of the Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center (AFDC) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Coordinators submit a range of data that characterizes the membership, funding, projects, and activities of their coalitions. They also submit data about sales of alternative fuels, deployment of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), idle reduction initiatives, fuel economy activities, and programs to reduce vehicle miles driven. NREL analyzes the data and translates them into gasoline reduction impacts, which are summarized in this report.
Authors: Johnson, C.
